What Are The Odds?

Let’s squeeze this in before the jury returns, my best guess/es on what’s about to happen in the New York Supreme Court under Judge Juan Marchan.  Following percentages are based on what is publicly known about the case.  There are at-present unknown factors re jury dynamics, etc., we won’t know about until after the trial ends that account for the missing percentages.

. . .

Trump Is Convicted:  65%
The prosecution built a solid case, New York law allows contrarian jurors to be removed if it can be shown they’re deliberately trying to cause a mistrial.  Trump will claim he’s bee framed (duh) but takes a major blow among undecided / independent voters and GOP voters already uncomfortable with him but heretofore willing to hold their noses and vote.

Hung Jury (2 jurors):  10%
The court can reasonably remove one deliberately contrarian juror but not two without running risk of being overturned.  Trump proclaims two jurors not voting to convict exonerates him (duh X 2) but nor non-MAGAs it’s seen as the prosecution proving their case but not being able to convince two pro-Trumpers to do the right thing.  Not as bad a political outcome for Trump as a conviction but he can’t build off it.  Retrial after the election.

Hung Jury (3 – 4 jurors):  5%
Viewed as a prosecution loss.  Clearly most jurors think he’s guilty but the margin of disagreement is enough to cast doubt on the prosecution’s case.  Trump benefits politically by being able to reinforce his witch hunt claims.  Retrial unlikely.

Hung Jury (5+ jurors):  1%
Trump victory.  Prosecution failure.  Trump base energized.  No retrial.

Trump Acquitted:  0%
Ain’t gonna happen, too much evidence to convince all twelve jurors he’s innocent.

. . .

Sentencing if found guilty:
No odds on this, but the following options are on the table…

• Fine only -- These are Class E felonies, the lowest felony class in New York.  It’s very common for first time Class E convictions to result in just fines, no prison time.  Assume there will be fines with all the following sentences.

• Unmonitored probation -- Symbolic imprisonment.  He’s allowed to roam free but for a set number of years he’s theoretically open to re-arrest and imprisonment if convicted of a new crime committed post-sentencing.

• Monitored probation -- Another primarily symbolic imprisonment.  While he’ll need to check in periodically with New York probation authorities, he’ll probably be allowed to do so remotely or through his lawyers.  Does hold the potential of seeing him imprisoned after the election if he blows it off during the campaign.

• Imprisonment -- Unlikely to get a multi-year sentence by Judge Marchan may out him behind bars overnight to demonstrate he’s not above the law.  It’s also possible sentencing may be deferred until after the election.  While Judge Marchan is unlikely to cite contempt as a reason to imprison him (Trump could claim double jeopardy since he’s already been fined), Trump’s bad behavior during the trial isn’t going to lessen the chance he’ll go to jail.  Eugene Debs (1920) and Lyndon LaRouche (1992) both ran presidential campaigns from behind bars.

. . .

Political Outcome:
Barring exoneration (5+ jurors voting not guilty), Trump gains nothing from this trial.  Exoneration boosts him somewhat but is unlikely to convince any anti-Trumpers to vote for him.  A near-miss hung jury leaves the status quo in place while a conviction damages him among independents, mainstream GOP, and even a few MAGA-types who will see him as a god who failed.

© Buzz Dixon