The End Of The Media World (As We Know It)

Sometime in 2023 -- probably the March / April issue -- Analog will publish a short-short story I wrote satirizing the use of AI in entertainment and publishing.

What was cutting edge when I wrote the story in January of 2022 is old news in December of the same year when this is being written for posting in January 2023.

We are witnessing the start of a massive change in entertainment and creative culture that will probably dwarf the arrival of recorded performances, motion pictures, and radio / television broadcasting.

It will upset a lot of apple carts (no pun on the computer company intended but, hey, one never knows, do one?).

While the brouhaha over AI art dominates the conversation as of this moment, there’s a bunch of Brobdingnagian boots awaiting their turn to drop.

AI is already being used for writing purposes, producing work that can’t easily be distinguished from a mediocre high school or college student’s efforts.

Yes, the whole point of writing an essay is to learn how to find facts, evaluate them, and marshal one’s thoughts to present a logical argument; what high school or college student packs that much self-awareness?  To them it’s just a pointless exercise, one they’ll gladly turn over to the machines to do.

And AI is also showing signs of being able to write passable short fiction all on its own, though human editing and guidance is still required for more elaborate works…

…so far.

Frankly, just as AI art can lift elements from thousands of existing artworks and mash them together, so can it yank ideas and passages and scenes and characters from existing literary works, rename them, and pass them off as new work.

Mind you, this is what human beings do all the time, the difference being that when a human mashes up Mark Twan’s Life On The Mississippi with Joseph Conrad’s Heart Of Darkness and puts a steampunk /Lovecraftian spin on it (as I have done with one of my stories), it’s a far more deliberate and judicious effort than AI just slamming elements together until something fits.

AI writing is already being marketed for bloggers, enabling them to “write” blog posts by simply picking a topic and letting AI do all the grunt work.

Of course, this only undermines the value of blogging by mindlessly parroting what others post, including whopping errors in fact that AI can’t recognize.  It makes all blogs more suspect insofar as they no longer can be assumed to be 100% genuine views but rather clickbait generated for advertising revenue.

For the record, unless noted all literary work on this blog is guaranteed 100% organic.

AI also undermines faith in social media, not that anyone assumed everything they saw was accurate, but most felt what they read was genuine; i.e., a real human being’s ideas / opinions / emotions.

Spambots easily revealed themselves through copy & paste talking points (posting points?).

What will we do with AI writing have express the same basic idea in a hundred different ways for a hundred different sockpuppets?

. . .

AI “creativity” is like telling a digital poker game to deal you a hand then deal you another if you don’t like the first, then a second, and a third, etc., etc., and of course, etc. until you finally get a royal flush in the suite you like.

Not really much of an accomplishment compared to the person who plays the hand that dealt them and manages to win, is it?

Now, hot on the heels of static image AI, we’re learning AI video is going to drop soon, and like AI art it’s going to be limited and unattractive at first, but eventually it will get better and better, and before long it will be rivaling what major studios can do.

This is going to be bad news for all streaming studios not on the YouTube model, where content creators toss their efforts into the bin hoping they’ll get enough views to garner some advertising revenue.

Mind you, that model can work, but it’s not going to work for Disney.

And while Disney may be in the strongest field position of any studio because of the huge amounts of real estate they own, nothing lasts forever.  Right now their cruising on several generations of good will and trust; the TikTok generation (and whatever comes after them) may find new idols and icons.

. . .

Since the 1980s it’s been possible for anybody to make a feature length film for under $1,000.

Yeah, you had to shoot on VHS, and your cast and crew needed to be volunteers, but you could produce a 90-minute work with an ordinary camcorder and videotape player.

Since then, technology improved dramatically to the point anybody can shoot a hi-def movie on their iPhone (and a lot of people have!).  Special effects technology became readily available at DIY levels, including professional looking greenscreen and fairly realistic computer graphics and animation using video game technology.

There are overlays and filters galore.  You can find AI apps to provide royalty free music or turn your text into speech with a nearly limitless cast of AI voices.

YouTube and other streaming services already feature a huge number of DIY sci-fi / fantasy / horror features, and PornHub & OnlyFans offer revenue streams for those interested in that sort of thing.

Literally tens of thousands of creators produce shows ranging from a few minutes to several hours in length, showing off their talents / interest / hobbies.  Once uploaded it stays up forever (barring legal challenges or the creator’s decision).

The studios built their business models on scarcity: 
You needed to go to their theaters / turn on their shows at their times / buy their licensed media to enjoy.

How in hell can that business model compete with somebody at 2am deciding to watch a video made fifteen years ago of a teen popping a pimple on their ass?

A lot of people cheered on the digital age as the ultimate democratization of mass communications, with everybody able to compete on equal footing.

Instead, it’s showing the value of gatekeepers.

The digital age isn’t organized like a sport where youngsters start in pee-wee- leagues, then move up to little leagues, then junior high and high school levels, with the best going on to college athletics and the best of the best becoming professionals with the very cream of the crop rising to champions.

No, it’s like a crowded park on a Sunday morning that’s trying to hold the World Cup and the college teams and the junior varsity high school playoffs and the kindergarten beginners’ classes all at the same time on the same field.

The best will not dominate.

The best will get lost in all the confusion.

. . .

I can see and appreciate applications for AI.

I think it makes a great toy or game.

AI, in fact, already powers a great many video games, it will make them a richer experience, one in which the user can decide whether they want a first person shooter or a game of exploration or a race or a dance off.

I can see people enjoying AI movies.  Imagine being able to recast any Bond movie with any of the actors who played 007, imagine being able to dial it all the way up to Roger Moore silliness or way down to Daniel Craig funerealism, the violence all the way from Buster Keaton slapstick to John Carpenter gore, the sex all the way from…well, you catch my drift.

You could watch the same story dozens of times with dozens of variants.

Imagine being able to do this with any and all forms of comedy or drama. 

Being a movie star will no longer hinge on any real talent or ability.

All one needs do is become a celebrity then license your perceived image out to the AI developers.

Problem is, our current media entertainment world isn’t built for that.

The big studios may well take devastating body blows that forever drive them out of the game.

Thousands of people who already make precarious livings creating things and performing things will find that livelihood greatly diminished, perhaps even completely evaporated.

When everybody can make media, the value of individual media diminishes.

We may indeed see a future where media is made and consumed on the same level as food with everybody able to either make their own or buy the ingredients, go out for a treat or order out for home delivery, grab something ready to eat at a fast-food franchise or visit a five-star restaurant run by a world class chef.

We may come to regard the era between Gutenberg and MicroSoft as a golden age when artists and creators and musicians and poets and performers could be recognized and financially supported on the strength of their talents and skills as opposed to a media landscape where big corporate franchises flood the field with crap, a few superstar creators make a comfortable living, and the best the rest can hope for is the equivalent of flipping burgers for minimum wage.

© Buzz Dixon