Duty Now For The Future (part three)

(When last we left our intrepid scrivener, he was spitballing ideas on what he thought the post coronavirus pandemic world would look like…)

Creative Breakthroughs

A lot of people are going to be doing things that interest them during the lockdown, and we’ll see the benefits of that very soon.

Ideas will collide and new ideas will emerge from that.

The high ticket items that our capitalist system kept saying was what we wanted will be supplanted by smaller scale, more personal ideas.

In my phone right now is a free app that enables me to make movies of any length.

There’s a music making app as well.

People are going to create and they’re going to create with the resources they have on hand.

The big movie theaters are taking a hit.  There will not be enough audiences to sustain them.  They’ll be rapidly repurposed.

Once a vaccine is developed for the coronavirus, live venues will flourish.

Pop up theaters and clubs along the times cited above for stores and restaurants will also flourish.

Some of those big empty shopping centers will see crowds return since every week will have a new batch of stores and food stalls and live entertainment to offer.

There are going to be some remarkable media projects created by this, and that will be the artistic wave of the future, and out of necessity it’s not going to be the bloated big budget blockbuster.

If you can tell an interesting story shot in your house using family members as cast, you’ll be able to craft other small scale dramas.

(The only movie theaters likely to flourish will be drive-ins, and for pretty much the reasons they flourished in the past:  They’re cheaper than motels.)

Also, if you thought my incel prediction was scary, try this on for size:  iPhones + senior citizens + trapped at home times several weeks or months confinement = epic granny porn.  (Right now a bunch of you are rolling your eyes and saying “there goes Buzz, making up weird stuff again” and to that I say “you wish!”)

. . .

Print Takes A Hit

Disposable printing (i.e., cheap magazines, books, comics, and newspapers) may not be wiped out, but it’s gonna get rocked back on its heels.

There will always be a small and identifiable market for quality printed works (and here I’m talking about the physical package, not the contents), but the days of buying a magazine knowing full well you’ll throw it away in a few days or weeks will end.

Disposable printing will remain for specific local events (conventions programs, conference brochures, etc.) but mass market printing will go.  (And expect more and more conventions and conferences to make their programs and brochures available online only.)

That’s going to be quite a block to several overlapping industries and creative disciplines.  There are new venues springing up digitally and online, but the transition over will not be an easy one for older consumers.

. . .

Collecting & Crafting

Bad news for all you folks holding onto “collectables” that were cranked out by the shitte-tonne.  The only people who value them are folks like you, who bought ‘em hoping to sell ‘em to some other sucker.  Real 21st century collectibles will be precious because of their scarcity and their craftsmanship, in particular the fame and reputation of the crafter making it.

. . .

DIY Culture

This is going to overlap with a resurgence in home crafting, making items by hand that become desirable because they were made by hand.  Smart tailors and jewelers and other crafters will operate on margins too thin for large scale production but will do quite nicely since they’ll eliminate mid-level distribution by selling directly online.  Already Etsy and similar sites are making this possible.

Couple it with 3D printers becoming cheaper and more reliable, and a lot of small household items are going to actually be made in the house they’re intended for.

We should also see people creating automated looms, knitting machines, woodworking lathes, etc., that eliminate or at least drastically reduce the skill set required to turn out serviceable goods.  

Not everyone will own one (much less all) of these devices, but in neighborhoods and among family and friends we should find people we know and trust who can make things for us.

. . .

Pop Up Stores And Restaurants

The worst business to be in is the restaurant business.  

An estimated 20% of all new businesses fail in their first year, and 50% fail by their fifth year, but for restaurants it’s a staggering 60% in year one, 80% by year five.

Who would want to get in any new business?

No, what we’ll want to do is get our new business out.

What kills most new businesses is a tug of war between financing (never enough) and real estate / hardware (always unexpected costs there).

A restaurateur needs to find an affordable location, make sure it is outfitted with a suitable kitchen, assemble a staff, then open at set times in a fixed location and hope enough people come to make the venture profitable.

Why?

Look at food trucks.  They go everywhere and they do good business.  Of course, there’s no fine dining establishment, you just grab your grub and go, so it’s not the wort of thing that appeals to people who wish to socialize or do a business lunch.

But a pop-up restaurant could offer that.  Find an empty venue, either take over its kitchen if it has one or truck in your own if needed, open only during the hours you wish to be open, then cart everything off when finished.

There are night clubs and raves that do this sort of thing already on a much lower scale.  And it doesn’t have to be confined to entertainment style businesses.

A small shop could easily open up for a few weeks in a specific location, sell products, then close and move on / wait till the next opportunity.  (This already happens in the form of Halloween and Christmas shops that pop up for a few weeks then disappear around those holidays.)

Returns could be handled in a centralized location; the business need not generate what it sells but could be the storefront for a manufacturer.

It will mean a change in the way we shop and the way we market what we shop, but with most durable goods purchased online, and with smaller items either made at home or by a local crafter one knows, this might be a viable market for items and services that might otherwise fall through the cracks.

. . .

The Knowns, The Known Unknowns, And The Unknown Unknowns

The above are what I think is going to result from this current coronavirus outbreak.

Frankly, there are still so many wild cards in play that there’s no guarantee any of the above will come about. 

Consider:
The tragic polio outbreaks of the 1920s / 30s / 50s were rightly or wrongly associated with public swimming pools.

A great many families, once they rose high enough into the middle class, bought a backyard pool -- either an inground or a temporary seasonal above ground model -- to keep their family safe.

It became a status symbol to show how well you looked after your kids.

Even when polio was finally defeated, it remained a status symbol.

There’s no reason for everybody to have a backyard pool, and in places like Southern California they’re actually counterproductive, contributing to climate change (you’re better off filling ‘em in and planting trees instead).

Nobody anticipated that in the 1950s when building pools became more and more common for middle class families around America.

You’ll notice I’ve avoid discussing contemporary politics.

That’s because this crisis is ultimately one of a political nature, both in the US and around the world, and it’s going to be solved (hopefully) through politics.

Or violence.

Which is why I’m rooting for politics.

Whatever happens, it’s going to be change in a big, big way.

It may not be good change.

We may not like it.

We may have to fight to change to something else.

But we’re never going back to where we once were.

. . .

Bottom Line:
We’re going to get through this, but we’re not going to be the same on the other side.

© Buzz Dixon